And They're Off...

The starting pistol has been fired, and the GOP nomination race for Election 2012 is now officially in full swing.  Yesterday, the Iowa Caucus, the nation's yearly first Republican electoral contest, gave a good indication as to the shape this year's race will take.  Or at least, what shape it will take on the surface.  Behind the scenes, there is one thing at the center of the GOP leadership's collective mind: defeating President Barack Obama.  While that is indeed a lofty and noble pursuit, I worry that it will result in a candidate who does not necessarily measure up to what this country truly needs.  In short, it's just the usual politics.

To recap the results of the caucus, for those who've not had a chance to see them, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (image right) and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (image left) were neck-in-neck with 25% of the vote, Romney only surpassing Santorum by a mere eight votes.  Texas Congressman Ron Paul came in third with 21% of the vote.  Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Former Texas Governor Rick Perry came in a distant fourth and fifth with 13% and 10%, respectively.  Rounding out the contenders were Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann with 5% (and who should probably adhere to the old adage, "A lady always knows when to leave") and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman with 1% (leading me to believe he certainly knows when to leave).  

From Iowa, it's on to the first Republican primary in New Hampshire, where Romney almost certainly has the biggest advantage.  For one thing, New Hampshire has a much less socially conservative voter base than Iowa, which will go against the race's two most socially conservative candidates, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul (Rick Perry is a staunch social conservative also, but does he really have a chance anymore?).  For another, it's rich New England territory and Romney's adopted home state.  A Southern, blue-collar man like Santorum and a "crazy Texan" like Paul really have very little chance in New England.  Still, it's far from over.  

I think the writing's on the wall, though.  As good as a truly conservative candidate would be for the GOP right now, as I mentioned earlier, the current aim is to unseat Obama, and the only one with enough political clout to do this is the more moderate Mitt Romney.  And for my part, I think this is a slippery slope for the GOP to take.  Romney is good at talking like a conservative, and indeed, his career has shifted farther to the right, particularly in recent years, but again, the GOP is only looking at his ability to beat Obama.  And Romney is a rich man and lifelong politician, groomed by his father, former Michigan Governor George Romney.  Can someone like him connect to the vast majority of the American people?  

Unseating Obama is an aim that I think can only weaken the GOP.  As paradoxical as that sounds, I beg you to look to the 2004 Presidential Election.  The Democratic Party was desperate to beat George W. Bush, and ended up nominating John Kerry, who was likely the weakest viable Democrat out of the potential candidates that year.  As expected by anyone with any knowledge of politics, President Bush easily defeated Kerry and was reelected for a second term.  From that point on, the Democratic Party has been divided on the best way to battle Republicans.  And division is akin to weakness.  Let's be honest: Obama wasn't elected because of any real Democratic strength, but because of the weakness of the Republicans in nominating John McCain.  The GOP is still divided, and even more so.  Tea Parties, Constitutionalists, etc. have all come under the Republican umbrella, but none of them can agree with the others.  Therefore, the energies that should be devoted to battling Democratic governance is instead used up fighting amongst themselves.  Unseating an incumbent president is difficult under the best conditions.  The best - and only - way to go about it is to unite behind a common goal, one that doesn't make the party seem as petty as the Democrats were in 2004.  Conservatism is the most obvious banner behind which the GOP should rally, yet true conservatism is shunned.  I feel that Mitt Romney is viewed less as a true conservative leader, and more as the least offensive to liberals and moderates.  I don't personally have anything against Romney, but I'd prefer a candidate whose principles are a little clearer.

It's going to be an interesting election year.  Here's hoping the right choices are made.

 

Image Credit: AP/Charlie Riedel, left image, Reuters/Rick Wilking